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SFB 504 discussion paper No. 04-26:

Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? Experiments with real world and lab data

Michele Bernasconi and Oliver Kirchkamp and Paolo Paruolo


We generate observable expectations about fiscal variables through laboratory experiments using real world data from several European countries as stimuli. We compare a VAR model of expectations for data which is presented in a fiscal frame with one for neutrally presented data. We measure the degree to which participants use fiscal data for their forecasts. Agents' expectations are found neither to be consistent with rational nor with purely adaptive expectations but, instead, follow an augmented-adaptive scheme. Methodological implications of the present approach for experiments in macroeconomics are also discussed.

JEL-Classification: C91, D89, E62, H31

Keywords: Fiscal expectations, experiments, Antikeynesian